Race Time Predictor

How Do Race Predictions Work?

Race prediction algorithms use your performance at one distance to estimate how fast you could run other distances. They account for the relationship between distance and pace, recognizing that runners cannot maintain the same pace as distances increase.

Prediction Algorithms

• Riegel Formula: Uses a 1.06 fatigue factor, popular for its simplicity and general accuracy across distances.
• Cameron Formula: Uses adaptive fatigue factors (1.07 for shorter distances, 1.05 for marathon predictions), often more conservative for longer races.
• Vickers Formula: Adjusts fatigue factors based on the distance ratio, providing nuanced predictions for extreme distance changes.

Best Practices

• Use a recent race result where you gave your best effort for the most accurate predictions
• Predictions are most accurate when predicting similar distances (e.g., 5K to 10K, not 5K to marathon)
• Consider training specificity - marathon predictions require proper long-distance training
• Compare predictions from all three algorithms to get a range of potential times
• Account for race conditions, terrain, and your training focus when interpreting results

Limitations

Race predictions are estimates based on mathematical models. Actual performance depends on many factors including training volume, race-specific preparation, weather conditions, course profile, and race-day execution. Use predictions as a guide for goal-setting, not as guarantees of performance.